tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78507549161759512222024-03-13T20:30:50.099-07:00PadresFutureA blog about the direction of the Padres. Mostly my opinions on the farm system, moves the club should make, and moves the club has made.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-63033182724400571142012-01-06T15:32:00.000-08:002012-01-06T15:33:21.114-08:00On the Rizzo TradeA lot of initial fan backlash on this trade. I don't have a huge problem with this trade and may actually like it. It is clear from the Latos and now Rizzo trade that a top middle infield prospect that is close to ML ready is just not available. There is such a huge drop in talent from guys like Machado and Profar to the next level of middle infield prospect. Some fans wanted Wade Davis from the Rays. Why? I wouldn't put him ahead of Anthony Bass on the depth chart.<br /><br />The biggest argument against this trade is from a "value" standpoint. Clearly, the Cubs valued Cashner very highly or Cates would not have been added. Many fans feel Rizzo has far more "value" than Cashner.<br /><br />What I like about this trade is that the Padres get a reliever that should be very effective at Petco in 2012 and still control him for several more years as they work to figure out what Cashner's real future is. Cashner has solid stuff and a plus-plus fastball. His control has been improving each year and now he has a chance to work with Black and Balsley. The Padres essentially are getting a solid late inning relief guy with elite starter upside. The one thing the Padres deep stable of pitching prospects has lacked is an "elite" upside pitcher that is ML ready or close to ML ready. You could make an argument that Cashner has the best "stuff" of any Padres player or prospect. This represents the beginning of the next "phase" in the Padres future... aquiring and drafting "elite" upside players. I think you will see the trend continue in the 2012 draft. The days of drafting safe college players are behind the Padres.<br />Byrnes, IMO, has done an excellent job of continuing the movement for the future while simultaneously putting together a team in 2012 that may surprise. Cashner fits both the "win now" and "build for the future" scenarios.<br /><br />I realize I may be in the minority, but they had the depth to take the gamble.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-24699366054354365712011-10-24T09:14:00.000-07:002011-10-24T09:34:52.346-07:00Prospect Rankings: Probability Versus ImpactIMO, there are two general schools of thought when considering how to rank prospects. The probability school of thought tends to put more weight on factors such as pro experience and how close they are to the majors. The Impact school of thought is going to put more weight on factors like ceiling and positional relevance.<br /><br />My Padres Top 10 Prospect Ranking - Probability:<br /><br />1) Erlin<br />2) Darnell<br />3) Tekotte<br />4) Kelly<br />5) Rizzo<br />6) Brach<br />7) Belnome<br />8) Gyorko<br />9) Castro<br />10) Wieland<br /><br />You will notice this list is heavily skewed towards players that are in the upper minors or have already reached the majors.<br /><br /><br />My Padres Top 10 Prospect Ranking - Impact:<br /><br /><br />1) Erlin<br />2) Castro<br />3) Fuentes<br />4) Wieland<br />5) Kelly<br />6) Tekotte<br />7) Gyorko<br />8) Hedges<br />9) Belnome<br />10) J Hagerty<br /><br />You will notice that premium positions and ceiling are more heavily weighted for this school of thought in ranking prospects.<br /><br /><br />Overall Top 20:<br /><br />1) Gyorko<br />2) Erlin<br />3) Hedges<br />4) Rizzo<br />5) Liriano<br />6) Sampson<br />7) Kelly<br />8) Wieland<br />9) J Decker<br />10) Spangenberg<br />11) Castro<br />12) Tate<br />13) Ross<br />14) Darnell<br />15) Hagerty<br />16) Tekotte<br />17) Belnome<br />18) Fuentes<br />19) Peterson<br />20) QuackenbushPadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-36294233789345939782011-09-26T17:43:00.000-07:002011-09-26T18:11:23.359-07:00Padres Prospects UpdateOn my last look at the Padres farm system, I may have left off several players that at the time were not prospects, not signed yet, or I just did not consider them prospects at the time.<br /><br />Here are some additional Padres prospects to keep an eye on:<br /><br /><strong>AA</strong><br /><br />Robbie <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Erlin</span> P - A great pick up for the Padres. He doesn't walk anyone and has an advanced feel for the game for a 20 year old. Could make a nice 2/3 caliber starting pitcher soon.<br /><br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">Jospeph</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">Wieland</span> P - Will likely be linked to <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">Erlin</span> for a long time. Another good pick up and a player with advanced feel and amazing control. A solid bet to be a middle of the rotation pitcher in the big leagues.<br /><br /><strong>A+</strong><br /><br />Nick Schmidt P - Every once in a while a forgotten prospect re-emerges and makes a name for himself. I imagine there is a lot of internal debate on whether or not to find a 40 man roster spot for Schmidt, so they don't potentially lose him to the rule V draft.<br /><br />Andrew Werner P - Dominated A ball as a 24 year old. Viewed as organizational filler, but stranger things can happen. AA should tell us more.<br /><br /><strong>A</strong><br /><br />Mark Hardy P - Like Werner, we need to see more at an advanced level. 23 and dominating A ball is a good start though.<br /><br />Kevin <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">Quackenbush</span> P - Has completely dominated at each stop. This recent draftee could find himself <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">fastracked</span> like Spence was.<br /><br />Connor Powers 1B - Had a breakout year in Fort Wayne. Stuck behind a bunch of 1B with similar abilities.<br /><br />Rico Noel CF - With <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">Maybin</span> and <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">Tekotte</span>, it's hard to imagine Noel will ever get a real shot with the Padres. He showed improvement this year and can steal bases.<br /><br /><strong>A-</strong><br /><br />Matt <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">Andriese</span> P - <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error">Vey</span> good debut out of the Northwest League.<br /><br />Matthew <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">Stites</span> P - I think the Padres did well to draft him where they did. Could make a decent middle reliever some day for the Padres.<br /><br />Austin Hedges C - Could be the steal of the draft. He is Major League ready defensively. I think he will move faster than others believe.<br /><br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">Duanel</span> Jones 3B - Raw power and a project with upside.<br /><br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">Jace</span> Peterson SS - Slow start, but I think he will have a breakout year in 2012.<br /><br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">Alberth</span> Martinez OF - Another <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">latin</span> find for the Padres. Great American debut this year.<br /><br /><strong>Rookie -</strong><br /><br />Joseph Ross P- I hear he has great mechanics.<br /><br />Rodney <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_15" class="blsp-spelling-error">Daal</span> C - A young raw project.<br /><br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_16" class="blsp-spelling-error">Yoan</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_17" class="blsp-spelling-error">Alcantra</span> OF - Has a long ways to go, but like Martinez off to a great American start.<br /><br /><br />There are several other possible prospects I have not mentioned, most of whom just need to prove they can perform above rookie ball.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-70037966831377192802011-09-03T10:50:00.000-07:002011-09-03T10:58:25.527-07:00PADRES 2011 DRAFT: REVISITEDWith the winding down of the minor league season, it is time to take a second look at the Padres 2011 draft haul.
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<br />This draft may turn out to be a great draft for the Padres. They were able to sign all but 1 of their high profile draftees. Brett Austin turned down a reported $1.5 million and decided to go to school. What can you do? Overall, I am very pleased they were able to sign Kelly, Ross, and Hedges. Hedges may turn out to be the steal of the entire draft, as he is already major league ready behind the plate. Whether or not he can hit enough at the big league level will be the deciding factor in his future with the Padres.
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<br />Early returns on <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Spange</span> and Peterson are good. Several of the college <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">pitchers</span> are doing great. Most <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">noticeable</span> is Kevin <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">Quackenbush</span>. His ERA is under 1 to start his pro career. Having already moved up to Fort Wayne, he could end up in the Majors next season <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">ala</span> Josh Spence. Others, including <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">Stites</span>, Pope, <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">Andriese</span>, and <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hebner</span> have looked good early on.
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<br />Overall, I feel confidant in my original grade on this draft. The Padres get an A.
<br />PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-45300719376701093462011-08-13T10:49:00.000-07:002011-08-13T10:56:35.912-07:00Players deserving of a September Call-upIt's time to take a look at the players down on the farm that should get Septemeber Call-up's. I am only considering players not currently on the 25 man roster as of today.
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<br /><strong>AAA</strong>
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<br />Anthony Rizzo
<br />Everth Cabrera
<br />Matt Clark
<br />Luis Martinez
<br />Brad Brach
<br />Samuel Deduno
<br />Evan Scribner
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<br /><strong>AA</strong>
<br /><strong></strong>
<br />With guys like Spence, Bass, and Tekotte already on the big league club, there really aren't any more AA players that I would consider calling up in September.
<br /><strong></strong>
<br />PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-73300910588701932582011-08-09T17:27:00.000-07:002011-08-09T17:36:33.112-07:00The Padres July Trade Deadline: 2011After much ado, the Padres made 2 last minute trade deadline deals.
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<br /><strong>Ryan Ludwick goes to the Pirates</strong>
<br />The Padres shipped Ludwick off to the Pirates to clear salary and open up playing time to younger players that factor into the future. The Padres will get a non-prospect player to be named later or cash. I have no problem with this since they can use the extra cash from Ludwicks salary to sign some 2011 high school draftees. This also gives the Padres an opportunity to give more at bats to younger guys like Guzman and Blanks. The Padres can spend the next 2 months evaluating their young talent to see who will be in the fold next season.
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<br /><strong>Adams is traded for 2 AA control pitchers.</strong>
<br />I like this move a lot. The Padres received two very nice young middle of the rotation projectable arms in Joseph Wieland and Robbie Erlin. Both have phenomenal walk rates. Trading 1.3 years(100 innings) of a relief pitcher for potentially 6 years each of 180+ innings is a hell of a deal. Wieland and Erlin may be prospects, but they are as safe as prospects can be. Many young pitching prospects are still learning pitch sequencing and command... these youngsters have both down at an advanced level. Good things are brewing at the AA level.
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<br />PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-69757723568899688212011-07-01T12:10:00.000-07:002011-07-08T13:47:58.521-07:00State of The PadresI thought I would take a look at the overall health of the Padres farm system.<br /><br /><strong>1B - </strong>Not a deep position on the farm for the Padres; but, with Rizzo and Blanks both under club control for years to come, they don't need to be.<br /><strong></strong><br />Matt Clark<br />Cody Decker<br />Nathan Freiman<br /><br />All three are potential replacement level players in the bigs. Freiman may have the most upside and could develop into a player given a full time chance somewhere.<br /><br /><strong>2B - </strong>This is one of the deeper positions, IMO. The system is loaded with options.<br /><br />Logan Forsythe - ML ready, will likely end up as utility.<br />Vincent Belnome - Could be a legit candidate for a top 100 prospect, could end up as utility.<br />Beamer Weems - Best in class at defense, offense a big concern... also a utility candidate.<br />Jonathan Galvez - Young with upside. Defense needs work but he is young.<br />Jeudy Valdez - Often overlooked, could end up as utility as well.<br />Jedd Gyorko - Being groomed for 3B but has the ability to play 2B, should be top 50 prospect.<br />Cory Spangenberg - Considered the future leadoff hitter and 2B, could move fast, could land as a top 100 prospect next year.<br /><br /><strong>3B - </strong>Loaded with impact bats and defensive question marks.<br /><br />James Darnell - Quikly emerging as one of the top hitting prospects in baseball, top 50 candidate. Defense suspect but slowly improving. Could be moved to LF or used as trade bait.<br />Jedd Gyorko - Considered the future at 3B once Headley is traded or leaves via FA. Best combination of defense and hitting.<br />Edinson Rincon - Another impact bat emerging. Big defensive question marks could move him to LF or use as trade bait. Could be a top 100 prospect for his bat alone.<br />Cory Spangenberg - Has experience playing 3B.<br /><br /><strong>SS - </strong>Very weak position for the Padres.<br /><br />Beamer Weems - Only SS in the system that is defensively ready to field this position.<br />Jeudy Valdez - Remains to be seen if he can field SS.<br />Jonathan Galvez - Big questions defensively but the most offensive upside of any potential Padres short stop.<br /><br />Good thing Cabrera is still under club control.<br /><br /><strong>C - </strong>This may be the weakest position on the farm as I count only 1 legit prospect. Phillips could be an adequate back up catcher until other options are found.<br /><br />Jason Hagerty - Switch hitting catcher is improving offensively and coming along defensively. I don't expect a defensive stud but if he can hit in the majors I will take it. Legit top 100 prospect candidate.<br /><br /><strong>CF - </strong>High ceilings. Low floors.<br /><br />Blake Tekotte - MLB ready. Should make a solid 4th outfielder and adequate CF injury replacement. Top 100 candidate.<br />Reymond Fuentes - Defense is solid. Very fast. Limited power. I will accept the lack of power if he can learn to get on base. Potential leadoff candidate if he develops offensively. Top 100 candidate.<br />Donovan Tate - Highest upside of any system outfielder. Unfortunately the lowest floor as well.<br />Rymer Liriano - Has not responded well to being challenged but is still young.<br /><br />The Padres have Maybin for several more years. Plenty of time to develop some of the upside talent at CF.<br /><br /><strong>RF - </strong>Plenty of options at RF.<br /><br />Aaron Cunningham - Good candidate to be a 4th or 5th outfielder.<br />Sawyer Carroll - Under the radar but has quietly produced at every level, another 4th/5th OF candidate.<br />Blake Tekotte - Can play all 3 outfield positions, could get a chance in RF in 2012. Top 100 candidate.<br />Jaff Decker - Having a see-saw year but still young and projectable. Could get his first call up in 2012. Top 100 Candidate<br />Daniel Robertson - Another guy that quietly produces and yet another 4th/5th OF candidate.<br />Reymond Fuentes - If his offense improves quickly he could get some time in RF next to Cameron Maybin to form one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.<br />Luis Domoromo - Very young and starting to produce in the lower minors, someone to keep an eye on.<br />Rymer Liriano - RF makes more sense then CF but still a long ways from the big leagues.<br />Donovan Tate - Like Fuentes, if he starts putting it together quickly he could see time in RF until he can take over CF. Still 3 years away.... if he can stay on the field.<br /><br />RF is loaded with talent that is ready now or has upside impact potential.<br /><br /><strong>LF - </strong>This is really the one OF position that the Padres will likely fill with a power impact bat.<br /><br />Aaron Cunningham - Unlikely to get the LF job full time but certainly can field it.<br />Matt Clark - Matt Clark is getting some time in LF, my gut tells me he is just trying to make himself useful since there is no chance he plays 1B for the Padres unless Rizzo or Blanks is traded.<br />Sawyer Carroll - He is likely to suffer the same fate as Cunningham, very good minor leaguer that needs the right team to give him a chance. Could be usefull utility corner outfielder.<br />Daniel Robertson - Seems to be a favorite of many Padre farm fans, something about short players like Eckstein that make people want to root for them.<br />Jaff Decker - LF makes sense for Decker. He can field that position and has some power.<br />James Darnell - Bat is so good the Padres are trying him out at LF.<br />Edinson Rincon - Could be tried in LF. Likely ends up in AL as a DH prospect.<br />Luis Domoromo - Young with some upside. I suspect he ends up as a utility 4th/5th outfielder.<br /><br />The LF job could go to Blanks in the near term. Decker and Darnell will be pushing right behind for a chance to make an impact at the ML level.<br /><br />The Padres should have no shortage of usefull outfielders for the next 8 years.<br /><br /><strong>RP - </strong>Another area of strength for the Padres at the big league level and on the farm.<br /><br />Evan Scribner - Should become an average 7th inning type.<br />Josh Spence - Already been mentioned in a top 100 prospect list, solid bullpen piece that could be used in 7th inning, or in long relief, or as just a lefty specialist.<br />Nick Vincent - Very under the radar. Could be long relief or late inning guy.<br />Brad Brach - Closer or 8th inning specialist. Being compared to Heath Bell.<br />Erik Hamren -Likely destined for AAA bullpen depth.<br />Miles Mikola - Has shown improvement each time he has been promoted.<br />Zach Cates - Being tried as a starter but I still believe his potential is as a late inning RP.<br />Matt Jackson - Has shown flashes of dominance and may be taking a step forward this year, good candidate for a long relief role.<br /><br />The big club is already flush with good young talent. Scribner, Spence, Vincent, and Brach are all ready now and could make it easier for the Padres to deal some of their bullpen talent.<br /><br /><strong>SP - </strong>The system is deep in terms of usefull starting pitchers but lacks depth in front of the rotation caliber pitching.<br /><br />Casey Kelly - Still young for AA, shown minimal improvement this year. Still 2 years away and has a 2/3 starter ceiling, IMO.<br />Anthony Bass - Ready now. Will provide value to the big club as a 3/4/5 type starter.<br />Jorge Reyes - Could be AAAA, back of the rotation, or long relief.<br />Juan Oramas - A hidden gem.<br />Simon Castro - Still a top 100 prospect but questions are popping up about his ability to pitch above the AA level. Ceiling as a 2/3 starter but high bust potential.<br />Matt Lollis - Seems to be taking a step back this year, but is still only 20.<br />Pedro Hernandez - Another hidden gem. Excellent control and so-so K rate make him a good back of the rotation candidate.<br />Keyvius Sampson - Young and dominant with acceptable control, good combination. May be the best SP prospect in the system. Projects as a solid # 2.<br />Matthew Jackson - I think he is destined for the bullpen.<br />Adys Portillo - Control is getting worse as his K rate is improving. This is actually encouraging to me. Once he has confidence in his stuff hopefully his control will improve. If this guy figures it out he can be a 2/3 starter.<br />John Barbato - Not much to measure yet, early returns are good. Has upside.<br /><br />SP is young and solid at the ML level. This affords the Padres time to develop guys like Castro, Kelly, Lollis, Keyvius, and Portillo.<br /><br />Very exciting to see the Padres with so many promising minor leaguers. Guys that I believe will get solid consideration as top 100 prospects in 2012:<br />Belnome<br />Gyorko<br />Spangenberg<br />Darnell<br />Rincon<br />Hagerty<br />Tekotte<br />Fuentes<br />Decker<br />Spence<br />Brach<br />Kelly<br />Oramas<br />Castro<br />Sampson<br /><br />Not a chance they all make it... but these are guys that can't be ignored. I can't imagine less than 4 or 5 of these guys being considered top prospects going into next year.<br /><br />Also nice to see the Padres finally have some impact bat potential:<br />Darnell<br />Decker<br />Rincon<br />Gyorko<br />Spangenberg<br />Belnome<br />Hagerty<br /><br />For fun, if I was to put togther a 25 man roster with Padre minor league prospects that have the best overall combinaton of defense, offense, upside, and proven production:<br /><br />Darnell - 1B(just for fun why not try him at 1B in this scenario)<br />Spangenberg - 2B<br />Gyorko - 3B<br />Beamer Weems - SS<br />Hagerty - C<br />LF - J Decker<br />CF - Tekotte<br />RF - Sawyer Carroll<br />4th OF - Cunninham<br />5th OF - Fuentes<br />Utility 1 - Belnome<br />Utility 2 - Forsythe<br />Backup Catcher - Luis Martinez<br /><br />SP1 - Casey Kelly<br />SP2 - Simon Castro<br />SP3 - Anthony Bass<br />SP4 - Keyvius Sampson<br />SP5- Juan Oramas<br />Swingman - Jorge Reyes<br />Closer - Brach<br />Set up1 - Scribner<br />Set up2 - Vincent<br />Lefty specialist - Spence<br />RP - Mikola<br />RP - CatesPadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-69230691974801622982011-06-13T11:05:00.000-07:002011-07-08T13:47:36.894-07:002011 Padres Draft: First ImpressionsFrom a strategy standpoint the Padres did very well in the 2011 draft. They drafted a solid combination of upside and safe picks.<br /><br />The first pick, <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Spangenberg</span>, is considered a reach by many. The Padres insist he was the highest player on their board when the 10<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">th</span> pick came up. I suspect he was the Padres highest player on the board for that pick, but not for talent alone. I am sure the Padres prioritized <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">signability</span>. That said, I like the pick. <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">Spangenburg</span> has good upside as a potential 1 or 2 hitter. He has speed and can hit for average. The Padres also picked up <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">Jace</span> Peterson in the supplemental round to pair with <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">Spangenberg</span> as middle infield/<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">lead off</span> candidate talent. Peterson may be a steal, IMO, as he has a low strikeout rate and a solid walk rate.<br /><br />The rest of the supplemental and 2<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">nd</span> round picks were used on upside players. Joe Ross is the safest of the "upside" picks. He projects as a middle of the rotation starter, <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">IMO</span>. Michael Kelly is the more <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">intriguing</span> upside pitcher. With the Padres having several young pitchers at the <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">MLB</span> level now and with Bass, Kelly, Hefner, and Castro all near ready, they can afford to wait a few years for these upside pitchers to develop. The Padres also added two young Catchers in Brett Austin and Austin Hedges. Brett Austin was drafted for his offensive upside and Austin Hedges is one the best defensive catching prospects to come around in recent years. The Padres have <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hundley</span> now and may have Jason <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hagerty</span> within 1-2 years. This affords the Padres the time to develop these young catchers.<br /><br />The Padres drafted several college <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">pitchers</span> that project well as relief and back of the rotation starters. Mark Pope had a very nice college career and could move quickly.<br /><br />Overall, I am very pleased with the Padres draft. They emphasized impact upside talent early on. They drafted for <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">Petco</span> and also for need without passing on guys they "should" have taken. I give this draft an early A.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-61873938302730844762010-10-04T17:31:00.000-07:002011-07-08T13:47:19.250-07:00A Look Ahead to 2011Well, the 2010 season is over. No heart attack, but my finger nails are bleeding! I had this team winning between 80-85 games. I rationalized that they would have a solid bullpen, team speed, and good defense. These elements are often overlooked when compared to offense and the starting rotation. I would say this team slightly over <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">achieved</span>.<br /><br />It's time to take a peek at what the Padres should do to take a step forward in 2011.<br /><br />The current 25 man roster:<br /><br /><strong>Mike Adams</strong>: Unless a great trade option comes up, he will be back.<br /><strong>Heath Bell</strong>: Will cost some money to bring back. Trades will be discussed. I think he comes back.<br /><strong>Kevin <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">Correia</span></strong>: Bringing Kevin back would just take a roster spot from several better and cheaper options. He will be gone.<br /><strong>Ernesto <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">Frieri</span></strong>: Young, effective, cheap. Should be considered for one of the final bullpen spots.<br /><strong>John Garland</strong>: Team will likely <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">exercise</span> option. Will Garland <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">excercise</span> the mutual option? The Padres should bring him back.<br /><strong>Luke <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">Gregerson</span></strong>: Young, cheap, and usually effective. Padres could feel out a trade and plug <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">Frieri</span> or Webb into the 7<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">th</span> inning. He will likely be back.<br /><strong>Mat <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">Latos</span></strong>: He will be back.<br /><strong>Wade Leblanc</strong>: Will likely battle <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error">Luebke</span> for one of the final pitching spots.<br /><strong>Edward <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">Mujica</span></strong>: Still under club control. Other than some home runs, he has been very effective and can go 3 innings if needed. I see value in bringing him back.<br /><strong>Clayton Richard</strong>: Solid season and under club control. He will be back.<br /><strong>Tim <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">Stauffer</span></strong>: I was asking most of the season why <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">Correia</span> was starting over Tim. If the Padres are smart they put him in the rotation.<br /><strong>Joe Thatcher</strong>: One of the best young lefty relievers in the game. He is under club control. He will return.<br /><strong>Nick <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hundley</span></strong>: He will be back.<br /><strong><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">Yorvit</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_15" class="blsp-spelling-error">Torrealba</span></strong>: Just like with Garland, will <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_16" class="blsp-spelling-error">Yorvit</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_17" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">exercise</span> his mutual option? I see no reason why the Padres wouldn't keep him around for $3.5 mil.<br /><strong><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_18" class="blsp-spelling-error">Evereth</span> Cabrera</strong>: Put him in AAA. Let him work on his OB skills for a season.<br /><strong>David <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_19" class="blsp-spelling-error">Eckstein</span></strong>: This is a question mark. I think the Padres will look to add a free agent to upgrade this spot, or may give <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_20" class="blsp-spelling-error">Antonelli</span> a chance if he is healthy<br /><strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong>: Trades will be discussed. The Padres should give him a take it or leave it offer and trade him he doesn't take it. He will likely be back.<br /><strong>Jerry <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_21" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hairston</span> Jr</strong>: Valuable and cheap bench piece. The Padres would be wise to bring him back.<br /><strong>Chase <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_22" class="blsp-spelling-error">Headley</span></strong>: Young and Cheap. I would like to see the Padres go after some power for 3B. I expect the tight budgeted Padres will bring Chase back for another .265 with 13 HR and 70 RBI, woo <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_23" class="blsp-spelling-error">hoo</span>.<br /><strong>Miguel <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_24" class="blsp-spelling-error">Tejada</span></strong>: Turned out to be a great pick up. I hope than can bring him back.<br /><strong>Chris <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_25" class="blsp-spelling-error">Denorfia</span></strong>: Should be back.<br /><strong>Tony <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_26" class="blsp-spelling-error">Gwynn</span></strong>: Defense too valuable to let walk before his arbitration years are up.<br /><strong>Scott <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_27" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hairston</span></strong>: So long <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_28" class="blsp-spelling-error">Scotty</span>.<br /><strong>Ryan <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_29" class="blsp-spelling-error">Ludwick</span></strong>: Big question mark. Will likely cost $7 million. Could be worth the gamble since the FA market is very weak this year.<br /><strong>Oscar Salazar</strong>: Candidate to let walk.<br /><strong>Matt Stairs</strong>: Blocking guys like Cunningham. Padres should let him sign elsewhere.<br /><strong>Will <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_30" class="blsp-spelling-error">Venable</span></strong>: Put it together the last 2 months. Good defense, good <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_31" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">base running</span>, average offense. Should be back to see if he can put it all together for a full season and reduce the K's.<br /><strong>Kyle Blanks</strong>: Could start the Season in AAA, will likely be back on the 25 man at some point.<br /><br />I realize this is 28 players. The <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_32" class="blsp-spelling-error">DL</span> carousel always happens.<br /><br />40 Man players that should be looked at in spring training:<br /><br /><strong>Cory <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_33" class="blsp-spelling-error">Luebke</span></strong>: Should be given a shot to win a back of the rotation starting spot.<br /><strong>Cesar Ramos</strong>: Likely back in AAA, lefties always valuable.<br /><strong>Adam Russell</strong>: Likely back in AAA. Webb is pitching better.<br /><strong>Ryan Webb</strong>: Legit chance to crack this bullpen, especially if a trade of Bell, Adams, or <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_34" class="blsp-spelling-error">Gregerson</span> occurs.<br /><strong>Chris Young</strong>: Could be offered a $1m base with innings pitched incentives.<br /><strong>Matt <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_35" class="blsp-spelling-error">Antonelli</span></strong>: Second base will be a possible open spot. I would like to see him in AAA again until he can sustain health and productivity.<br /><strong>Aaron Cunningham</strong>: Deserves a shot platooning like he did in September.<br /><strong>Luis <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_36" class="blsp-spelling-error">Durango</span></strong>: Headed for a trade or AAA. Could be a regular up and down just like 2010.<br /><br />Prospects with an outside chance to crack the 25 man:<br /><br /><strong>Aaron <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_37" class="blsp-spelling-error">Poreda</span></strong>: Has to get his control together fast.<br /><strong>Simon Castro</strong>: Rotation is already log jammed. A full season at AAA won't hurt.<br /><br />My 25 man roster expectation:<br /><br />Bullpen(7 or 8)<br />Heath Bell<br />Mike Adams<br />Luke <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_38" class="blsp-spelling-error">Gregerson</span><br />Ernesto <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_39" class="blsp-spelling-error">Frieri</span><br />Joe Thatcher<br />Ryan Webb<br />Wade Leblanc<br />Edward <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_40" class="blsp-spelling-error">Mujica</span><br /><br />Starting Pitchers(5)<br />Mat <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_41" class="blsp-spelling-error">Latos</span><br />John Garland<br />Clayton Richard<br />Tim <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_42" class="blsp-spelling-error">Stauffer</span><br />Chris Young(if they can bring him back cheaply... <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_43" class="blsp-spelling-error">Luebke</span> would be first call up if Young injured)<br /><br />Catchers(2)<br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_44" class="blsp-spelling-error">Yorvit</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_45" class="blsp-spelling-error">Torrealba</span><br />Nick <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_46" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hundley</span><br /><br />Infield(5)<br />Adrian Gonzalez<br />Open1<br />Open2<br />Miguel <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_47" class="blsp-spelling-error">Tejada</span><br />Jerry <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_48" class="blsp-spelling-error">Hairston</span> Jr<br /><br />Outfield(5)<br />Chris <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_49" class="blsp-spelling-error">Denorfia</span><br />Aaron Cunningham<br />Will <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_50" class="blsp-spelling-error">Venable</span><br />Tony <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_51" class="blsp-spelling-error">Gwynn</span> Jr<br />Open3<br /><br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_52" class="blsp-spelling-error">DL</span> rotation<br />Kyle Blanks<br />Cory <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_53" class="blsp-spelling-error">Luebke</span><br />Cesar Ramos<br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_54" class="blsp-spelling-error">Evereth</span> Cabrera<br /><br />As for the open spots: The Padres <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_55" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">desperately</span> need power. I see no need to go out and get pitching, the Padres have plenty in house.<br />Open1: Padres should go after a 2B like Orlando Hudson<br />Open2: Move some extra pitching, Chase, and prospects for Miguel Cabrera or <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_56" class="blsp-spelling-error">Aramis</span> Ramirez<br />Open3: Talk to <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_57" class="blsp-spelling-error">Magglio</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_58" class="blsp-spelling-error">Ordonez</span>, if he wants too much then bring back <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_59" class="blsp-spelling-error">Ludwick</span><br /><br />These moves would add some serious payroll. The Padres would be looking at a $60-$65 mil payroll but a serious title contender with an improved lineup that could look like:<br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_60" class="blsp-spelling-error">Venable</span>/Cunningham<br />Hudson<br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_61" class="blsp-spelling-error">Tejada</span><br />Gonzalez<br />Cabrera/Ramirez<br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_62" class="blsp-spelling-error">Ludwick</span><br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_63" class="blsp-spelling-error">Torrealba</span><br /><span id="SPELLING_ERROR_64" class="blsp-spelling-error">Gwynn</span>/<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_65" class="blsp-spelling-error">Denorfia</span>PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-19639661663232231412010-10-01T16:32:00.000-07:002011-07-08T13:47:05.944-07:00The Padres Future: Corner InfieldThis is the 2<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">nd</span> in a 6 part series.<br /><br />Current Starters: 1B - Adrian Gonzalez, 3B - Chase <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">Headley</span><br /><br />2011 Outlook:<br /><br />I would think the Padres will be bringing Adrian back. The only way he is not the 2011 <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">first baseman</span> is if the Padres get an offer they can't refuse. Pencil him in.<br />The cheap Padres will also almost assuredly bring back Chase <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">Headley</span> to play 3B. Chase played very good defense but saw his <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">OBP</span> drop this year. He did not advance this year as a hitter. His offensive numbers would be fine as a shortstop or second baseman, but not as a third baseman. He will most likely be back as the starter.<br /><br />2012-2013 Outlook:<br /><br />1B will be a huge question beyond 2011. If the Padres ink Adrian to a long term deal then he will be starting there for several more years. If Adrian expects 8 years $150 million then we may be looking at Kyle Blanks. Other 1B options include Cody Decker, Allan <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">Dykstra</span>, Craig Cooper, and Matt Clark. Cooper would likely be no more effective offensively than <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">Headley</span> at 3B. Cody Decker and Matt Clark are showing some promise. <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">Dykstra</span> may be the most talented of anyone not name Adrian, but needs to put together more than "half" of a productive season. My guess is Kyle Blanks is our starting 1B in 2012.<br /><br />3B is even less certain. I can't imagine the Padres keeping <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">Headly</span> around too much longer if he can't get on base or produce runs. The Padres have James Darnell and Logan <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error">Forsythe</span> in the waiting. Another intriguing prospect is <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">Edinson</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">Rincon</span>. I think <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">Rincon</span> is more than 2 years away. We could be talking about him in 3-4 years. <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">Gyorko</span> has an outside chance, but I think the Padres are grooming him for the 2B job if <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">Antonelli</span> can't secure it. If <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_15" class="blsp-spelling-error">Headley</span> hits .290 with improved power he could be here another 3-4 years. If <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_16" class="blsp-spelling-error">Headley</span> comes back in 2011 with .260 and 12 HR, then Darnell and <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_17" class="blsp-spelling-error">Forsythe</span> will be competing for a starting <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_18" class="blsp-spelling-error">MLB</span> roster spot in 2012.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-16620598503328947732010-08-31T19:04:00.001-07:002011-07-08T13:46:47.152-07:002010 Padres September Call-UpsHere is a quick look at players the Padres will likely call up in September.<br /><br />Been to the bigs before:<br /><br />Radhames Liz<br />Luis Perdomo<br />Cesar Ramos<br />Adam Russell<br />Ryan Webb<br />Dusty Ryan<br />Luis Durango<br /><br />The only players I could see coming up that are not currently on the Padres 40 man roster are:<br />Cory Luebke<br />Mike BaxterPadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-26010806421987900122010-08-23T17:00:00.000-07:002011-07-08T13:46:29.770-07:002010 Padres Draft: RevisitedNow that all the signings are done, I wanted to take a brief visit back to this years draft class and re-grade.<br /><br />Obviously, not siging Whitson was a major disapointment. With the Padres getting first round compensation in next years deep draft, this failed signing is not the end of the world.<br /><br />An early look at the top 10:<br />1) Whitson - Failed to sign.<br />2) Gyorko - Already promoted to Fort Wayne and hitting well. I think this was a very safe pick for the Padres. Gyorko, if he develops league average defense, could become an everday good hitting 2B.<br />3) Cates - Glad to see him signed. New to pitching but apparantly learns quick and has some nice upside. Risky pick but could pay off as a late inning relief/closer type.<br />4) Bisson - Not happy with this pick, very little upside. I think he is just emergency defensive help with the hope that maybe he develops some hitting. Reminds me of Beamer Weems.<br />5) Rico Noel - Not sold on Noel. I hear he has some upside. Possible project pick.<br />6) John Barbato - Good to see we got one high school picther signed. Also a project but with some high upside, could develop into middle of the rotation starter.<br />7) Vanegas - Failed to sign.<br />8) Jose Dore - Another high schooler drafted in the top 10. If he develops power, Dore could be a steal.<br />9) Joshua Spence - I liked this pick a lot for the 9th round. Slipped because of previous injury. Excellent command, could develop into a back of the rotation starter.<br />10) Houston Slemp - Early returns in the minors not good.<br /><br />Overall, I like the idea of drafting high upside high schoolers. I would like to see the Padres sign more of them.<br /><br />Post signing grade: CPadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-58006331087677476892010-08-14T12:08:00.000-07:002011-07-08T13:46:15.862-07:00The Padres Future: OFThis is the first in a 6 part series.<br /><br />Padres current OF mix:<br />Ludwick, Gwynn, S Hairston, Venable, Denorfia, Stairs<br /><br />2011 outlook<br /><br />Ludwick should be back in the mix even if he costs $9 million through arbitration. Personally, I think the Padres should try and sign him to a 3/$30 type of deal. As long as Gwynn continues to play stellar defense, I see him returning as part of the rotation. I don't think the Padres will need to pay Scott Hairston several million when they have other options. Venable will likely be back unless they trade him in the offseason. Venable is actually a bargain until he enters his arbitration years. The Padres would be smart to bring back Denorfia. Stairs should be gone.<br />This leaves the Padres with potentially 2 openings in the outfield. The Padres have several options in the Minors. If Blanks is healthy he will likely be 1 of those openings. At AAA the Padres have Durango and Cunningham ready to have another cup of coffee. Baxter and Hunter sure look ready. My gut tells me that Cunningham will be the guy. I think Hunter or Durango could get moved in the offseason for some pitching. The 2011 outfield will look something like:<br /><strong>Ludwick, Gwynn, Venable, Denorfia, Cunningham, Blanks(Durango if Blanks is not healthy)</strong><br />This outfield mix would be above average defensively and provide a good mix of speed and some power.<br /><br />2012-2013 outlook<br /><br />The only player from my projected 2011 outfield that would not be under club control is Ludwick. I hope the Padres can sign him to an extension but I don't count on that. Gwynn could still be around for a reasonable salary, but only if he can improve his OBP while maintaining his high level of defense. I don't see Venable around this long unless he can also improve on the OBP. Denorfia will likely be gone. Cunningham and Blanks are the most likely to still be around. For Blanks the question will be: at what position? Farm system players likely to be in the mix include: Durango, Baxter, Hunter, Tekotte, Carroll, Robertson, and Jaff Decker. 2-3 years from now could see an outfield of the following:<br /><strong>Cunningham, Blanks, Tekotte, Decker, Durango, Hunter</strong><br />This outfield mix doesn't provide the defense of the current one, but would still have speed and some nice power potential.<br />My Ideal outfield for the 2012-2013 would substitute Ludwick(or similarly aquired FA) for Hunter.<br /><br />There you have it, a look at the next 3 years of the Padres outfield.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-14903762256081916292010-07-31T11:18:00.001-07:002011-07-08T13:45:31.200-07:00Padres Aquire Ludwick for ProspectsFinally, a move was made that shows real commitment from the organization. This is not a marginal move. The Padres had nobody in the OF that could hit righties. They gave up what I consider to be 2 C prospects. Kluber may become a 4-5 starter and Greenwood probably ends up in middle relief if he makes the majors. If asked what I would consider giving up to aquire Ludwick I would have been ok with a B prospect and a ML ready relief pitcher, so I think the Padres are getting a good deal. In an earlier post I described OF help needing to:<br />1) hit righties<br />2) OBPS .750 to .900<br />3) Bat in the 3-4-5 slots<br />All three are accomplished and Ludwick is not a liability on defense<br /><br />I just hope they do not send Denorfia down. They should send down Cabrera or Venable, or cut Stairs.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-69607589748047430832010-07-30T16:37:00.000-07:002011-07-08T13:45:02.366-07:00The Tejada TradeI see Tejada as a marginal upgrade on the bench. Don't get me wrong, I think Tejada will be usefull and may help the Padres win an extra game or two. In the final 62 games this year I see the Padres using him as follows:<br />5 games starting at 3B with Chase out of the lineup<br />5-10 games starting at 3B with Chase in LF<br />10 games starting at shortstop<br />Maybe a couple games in LF or 2B<br />Mostly, as a pinch hitter.<br />They will most likely remove Tejada in close games where the Padres have the lead for defensive purposes.<br /><br />I hope the Padres get a clue and cut Stairs now that the Padres have added to their bench.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-82352502269994387012010-07-27T17:07:00.000-07:002011-07-08T13:38:45.694-07:002010 Trade Deadline - Possible NL Trading PartnersToday, I will take a look at what NL teams may be possible trade partners for the Padres and who may be a fit.<br /><br /><strong>NL West</strong>: Arizona is the only team that I could imagine possibly trading with the Padres at this point.<br /><br /><strong>ARIZONA:</strong><br />Starting Pitching: I don't see anyone as a fit now that Haren is gone. Kennedy is likely not available and Edwin Jackson(despite a no hitter) is not an upgrade on anything the Padres have in house, i.e. might as well keep Correia.<br /><br />Outfield: Chris Young could be a good fit and $$ wouldn't be an issue. Would the Dbacks part with him? Would be costly. I like Parra but I don't see him as an upgrade to what the Padres already have.<br /><br />Infield: Of Kelly Johnson and Steven Drew, Johnson would be more likely to be available. I think Drew would cost the Padres more prospects than they would be willing to part with. Both players would represent a likely upgrade and pad the middle infield depth.<br /><br />Reality: Kelly Johnson is the only Dback that I see as a realistic possibility<br /><br /><strong>NL East: </strong>Washington and Florida<br /><br /><strong>FLORIDA:</strong><br />Starting Pitching: I don't see the Marlins making any of their starters available. They are young and controllable and the Marlins are not too far from contending. Nolasco would cost the Padres more than they are willing to surrender.<br /><br />Outfield: Cody Ross is a possibility but would represent only a marginal improvement on in house players such as Denorfia. If the Marlins are willing to sell low then maybe.<br /><br />Infield: Uggla would represent an offensive upgrade for sure. Despite rumblings that Florida is unwilling to trade Uggla, I think the right price could convince them.<br /><br />Reality: The Marlins are an unlikely trade partner as they see themselves not far from contention and do not want to throw away next season.<br /><br /><strong>WASHINGTON: </strong><br />Starting Pitching: Livan Hernandez would be that innings eater the Padres are looking for to limit Latos down the stretch.<br /><br />Outfield: Willingham would be an excellent fit for Padres. Definite offensive upgrade and his contract is not too prohibitive. I will throw Dunn in on the outfield list simply because there is no way he plays more then 3 games at 1b with Adrian on the team. Dunn would be huge for the batting lineup, but where do you play him? Owed more money than the Padres are likely willing to pay and Washington is going to want 2 top prospects for him.<br /><br />Infield: I don't see any infield fits.<br /><br />Reality: The Padres should be in serious talks for Willingham and possibly for Hernandez.<br /><br /><strong>NL Central</strong>: Chicago, Milwaukee, Houston, and Pittsburgh<br /><br /><strong>PITTSBURGH</strong>: I don't see Pittsburgh as a likely trading partner unless they make Maholm available. I suspect Pittsburgh wants to start building around a core of young players. Pittsburgh would be a very costly team to trade with at this point.<br /><br /><strong>MILWAUKEE:</strong><br />Starting Pitching: Dave Bush and Randy Wolf are possibilities, but I don't see either as an upgrade to the rotation.<br /><br />Outfield: Corey Hart would be an offensive upgrade, but I don' t like the Idea of buying high.<br /><br />Infield: Ricky Weeks intrigues me. I wonder what the Brewers would want for him? Counsell would simply be depth.<br /><br />Reality: Milwaukee is an unlikely trading partner unless Weeks is made available at a reasonable cost.<br /><br /><strong>CHICAGO:</strong><br />Starting Pitching: Gorzelanny would be cheap but not much of an upgrade. The Padres wouldn't touch Zambrano. Dempster, Lilly, and Silva all cost too much. Unless Chicago eats salary and is motivated to move Dempster or Lilly, I don't see this happening.<br /><br />Outfield: Byrd and Nady are both possibilities depending on what the Cubs want in return. Soriano and Fukudome are unlikely for the same reason as Lilly.<br /><br />Infield: Fontenot and Theriot are both possibilities. However, I suspect the Cubs would want more in return than what these players are worth. Both are relatively cheap and why would the Cubs be motivated to move either unless they were wooed with a good prospect package.<br /><br />Reality: The Cubs are a definite possibility as they have several players that could be made available.<br /><br /><strong>HOUSTON:</strong><br />Starting Pitching: If the Padres were serious about WS contention they would attempt to get a guy like Oswalt. He could put them over the top. The Padres are cheap and I just don't see them parting with prospects.<br /><br />Outfield: I don't see the Astros parting with Bourne or Pence unless a team overpays. I just don't see either as enough of an upgrade to warrant the Padres overpaying. Carlos Lee is a possibility only if the Astros eat a ton of money.<br /><br />Infield: Keppinger looks like he could be a great fit. He is cheap, productive and a definite upgrade. I have a feeling though the Astros would ask for Cabrera or Castro in return.<br /><br />Reality: Keppinger could be a real nice grab for the Padres if the Astros are willing to sell at a reasonable cost.<br /><br />Conclusions on the NL trade market: Willingham and Keppinger would help this lineup immensely. Not a lot of starting pitching available that the Padres could realistically go after.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-73145285738175113572010-07-23T17:05:00.001-07:002010-07-23T17:26:13.712-07:002010 Trade Deadline - NeedsThe 2010 trade deadline is fast approaching. In this post I will explore the Padres needs, who is available, the cost, and the realities.<br /><strong>What are the Padres needs?</strong><br /><br />1) Starting pitcher<br />IMO, the Padres need a front line starting pitcher that can eat innings. They seem to be set that Latos will be limited in his innings this season. This poses a problem. Latos has been our most effective starting pitcher this season. We need him healthy and pitching in September. A front line starting pitcher will allow the Padres to limit Latos innings and possibly could contribute in the postseason.<br /><br />2) Outfield bat<br />If the Padres starting pitching continues to regress, the offense will be under increasing pressure to produce runs. The outfield has been awful offensively. The recent call ups of Denorfia and Cunningham have helped. IMO, the Padres need 1 outfield offensive upgrade. Preferably a guy that can hit righties and hit somewhere in the 3-4-5 slots in the lineups. Ideally, the Padres need a guy they can count on to produce an OBPS in the .750 to .900 range.<br /><br />3) Infield depth<br />With Eckstein out, the Padres will need an infielder, preferably a guy that can produce an OBPS in the range of .700 to .850, while playing multiple infield positions.<br /><br />The right three players could put the Padres in the driver seat for the National League Pennant. Despite Padres brass making statements about having money to buy, I remain skeptical as to whether or not the Padres will make moves that are more than "marginal". I could see them getting Westbrook and Jed Lowrie and calling it quits. Would be nice if they could get Haren, Tejada, and Dejesus(assuming they believe he will be healthy enough); but, I just don't see it happening. Next, I will take a look at the teams that may be sellers and who the Padres might want from those teams.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7850754916175951222.post-69590341678715043062010-06-14T19:31:00.000-07:002010-06-14T19:43:04.068-07:00Thoughts on the 2010 Padres DraftComing into the 2010 draft I was hoping the Padres would go heavy on high-upside high school talent. I was looking for an emphasis on top of the rotation pitching, catching, and always coveted middle infield. <br /><br />The Padres did well in the high-upside pitching department with Whitson, Cates, Barbato, and Vanegas. They failed miserably to upgrade the farm system at the catching position. The good news is the catching farm hands seem to be producing better offensively this season. <br /><br />The 2010 draft saw the Padres take a lot of speedsters. I get that the ballpark favors speed; but, I was hoping for more high upside hitting talent. As I see it, the Padres have plenty of major league average "safe" hitters in their system. Tekkote, Cunningham, Carroll, Robertson... just to name a few could turn out to be ok everyday or part time Major Leaguers. I would like to see a little more chance in their drafting.<br /><br />Overall, I give this draft a B.PadresFuturehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405267197541911515noreply@blogger.com0