Prospect Rankings: Probability Versus Impact

IMO, there are two general schools of thought when considering how to rank prospects. The probability school of thought tends to put more weight on factors such as pro experience and how close they are to the majors. The Impact school of thought is going to put more weight on factors like ceiling and positional relevance.

My Padres Top 10 Prospect Ranking - Probability:

1) Erlin
2) Darnell
3) Tekotte
4) Kelly
5) Rizzo
6) Brach
7) Belnome
8) Gyorko
9) Castro
10) Wieland

You will notice this list is heavily skewed towards players that are in the upper minors or have already reached the majors.


My Padres Top 10 Prospect Ranking - Impact:


1) Erlin
2) Castro
3) Fuentes
4) Wieland
5) Kelly
6) Tekotte
7) Gyorko
8) Hedges
9) Belnome
10) J Hagerty

You will notice that premium positions and ceiling are more heavily weighted for this school of thought in ranking prospects.


Overall Top 20:

1) Gyorko
2) Erlin
3) Hedges
4) Rizzo
5) Liriano
6) Sampson
7) Kelly
8) Wieland
9) J Decker
10) Spangenberg
11) Castro
12) Tate
13) Ross
14) Darnell
15) Hagerty
16) Tekotte
17) Belnome
18) Fuentes
19) Peterson
20) Quackenbush