Saturday, July 31, 2010

Padres Aquire Ludwick for Prospects

Finally, a move was made that shows real commitment from the organization. This is not a marginal move. The Padres had nobody in the OF that could hit righties. They gave up what I consider to be 2 C prospects. Kluber may become a 4-5 starter and Greenwood probably ends up in middle relief if he makes the majors. If asked what I would consider giving up to aquire Ludwick I would have been ok with a B prospect and a ML ready relief pitcher, so I think the Padres are getting a good deal. In an earlier post I described OF help needing to:
1) hit righties
2) OBPS .750 to .900
3) Bat in the 3-4-5 slots
All three are accomplished and Ludwick is not a liability on defense

I just hope they do not send Denorfia down. They should send down Cabrera or Venable, or cut Stairs.

Friday, July 30, 2010

The Tejada Trade

I see Tejada as a marginal upgrade on the bench. Don't get me wrong, I think Tejada will be usefull and may help the Padres win an extra game or two. In the final 62 games this year I see the Padres using him as follows:
5 games starting at 3B with Chase out of the lineup
5-10 games starting at 3B with Chase in LF
10 games starting at shortstop
Maybe a couple games in LF or 2B
Mostly, as a pinch hitter.
They will most likely remove Tejada in close games where the Padres have the lead for defensive purposes.

I hope the Padres get a clue and cut Stairs now that the Padres have added to their bench.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

2010 Trade Deadline - Possible NL Trading Partners

Today, I will take a look at what NL teams may be possible trade partners for the Padres and who may be a fit.

NL West: Arizona is the only team that I could imagine possibly trading with the Padres at this point.

Starting Pitching: I don't see anyone as a fit now that Haren is gone. Kennedy is likely not available and Edwin Jackson(despite a no hitter) is not an upgrade on anything the Padres have in house, i.e. might as well keep Correia.

Outfield: Chris Young could be a good fit and $$ wouldn't be an issue. Would the Dbacks part with him? Would be costly. I like Parra but I don't see him as an upgrade to what the Padres already have.

Infield: Of Kelly Johnson and Steven Drew, Johnson would be more likely to be available. I think Drew would cost the Padres more prospects than they would be willing to part with. Both players would represent a likely upgrade and pad the middle infield depth.

Reality: Kelly Johnson is the only Dback that I see as a realistic possibility

NL East: Washington and Florida

Starting Pitching: I don't see the Marlins making any of their starters available. They are young and controllable and the Marlins are not too far from contending. Nolasco would cost the Padres more than they are willing to surrender.

Outfield: Cody Ross is a possibility but would represent only a marginal improvement on in house players such as Denorfia. If the Marlins are willing to sell low then maybe.

Infield: Uggla would represent an offensive upgrade for sure. Despite rumblings that Florida is unwilling to trade Uggla, I think the right price could convince them.

Reality: The Marlins are an unlikely trade partner as they see themselves not far from contention and do not want to throw away next season.

Starting Pitching: Livan Hernandez would be that innings eater the Padres are looking for to limit Latos down the stretch.

Outfield: Willingham would be an excellent fit for Padres. Definite offensive upgrade and his contract is not too prohibitive. I will throw Dunn in on the outfield list simply because there is no way he plays more then 3 games at 1b with Adrian on the team. Dunn would be huge for the batting lineup, but where do you play him? Owed more money than the Padres are likely willing to pay and Washington is going to want 2 top prospects for him.

Infield: I don't see any infield fits.

Reality: The Padres should be in serious talks for Willingham and possibly for Hernandez.

NL Central: Chicago, Milwaukee, Houston, and Pittsburgh

PITTSBURGH: I don't see Pittsburgh as a likely trading partner unless they make Maholm available. I suspect Pittsburgh wants to start building around a core of young players. Pittsburgh would be a very costly team to trade with at this point.

Starting Pitching: Dave Bush and Randy Wolf are possibilities, but I don't see either as an upgrade to the rotation.

Outfield: Corey Hart would be an offensive upgrade, but I don' t like the Idea of buying high.

Infield: Ricky Weeks intrigues me. I wonder what the Brewers would want for him? Counsell would simply be depth.

Reality: Milwaukee is an unlikely trading partner unless Weeks is made available at a reasonable cost.

Starting Pitching: Gorzelanny would be cheap but not much of an upgrade. The Padres wouldn't touch Zambrano. Dempster, Lilly, and Silva all cost too much. Unless Chicago eats salary and is motivated to move Dempster or Lilly, I don't see this happening.

Outfield: Byrd and Nady are both possibilities depending on what the Cubs want in return. Soriano and Fukudome are unlikely for the same reason as Lilly.

Infield: Fontenot and Theriot are both possibilities. However, I suspect the Cubs would want more in return than what these players are worth. Both are relatively cheap and why would the Cubs be motivated to move either unless they were wooed with a good prospect package.

Reality: The Cubs are a definite possibility as they have several players that could be made available.

Starting Pitching: If the Padres were serious about WS contention they would attempt to get a guy like Oswalt. He could put them over the top. The Padres are cheap and I just don't see them parting with prospects.

Outfield: I don't see the Astros parting with Bourne or Pence unless a team overpays. I just don't see either as enough of an upgrade to warrant the Padres overpaying. Carlos Lee is a possibility only if the Astros eat a ton of money.

Infield: Keppinger looks like he could be a great fit. He is cheap, productive and a definite upgrade. I have a feeling though the Astros would ask for Cabrera or Castro in return.

Reality: Keppinger could be a real nice grab for the Padres if the Astros are willing to sell at a reasonable cost.

Conclusions on the NL trade market: Willingham and Keppinger would help this lineup immensely. Not a lot of starting pitching available that the Padres could realistically go after.

Friday, July 23, 2010

2010 Trade Deadline - Needs

The 2010 trade deadline is fast approaching. In this post I will explore the Padres needs, who is available, the cost, and the realities.
What are the Padres needs?

1) Starting pitcher
IMO, the Padres need a front line starting pitcher that can eat innings. They seem to be set that Latos will be limited in his innings this season. This poses a problem. Latos has been our most effective starting pitcher this season. We need him healthy and pitching in September. A front line starting pitcher will allow the Padres to limit Latos innings and possibly could contribute in the postseason.

2) Outfield bat
If the Padres starting pitching continues to regress, the offense will be under increasing pressure to produce runs. The outfield has been awful offensively. The recent call ups of Denorfia and Cunningham have helped. IMO, the Padres need 1 outfield offensive upgrade. Preferably a guy that can hit righties and hit somewhere in the 3-4-5 slots in the lineups. Ideally, the Padres need a guy they can count on to produce an OBPS in the .750 to .900 range.

3) Infield depth
With Eckstein out, the Padres will need an infielder, preferably a guy that can produce an OBPS in the range of .700 to .850, while playing multiple infield positions.

The right three players could put the Padres in the driver seat for the National League Pennant. Despite Padres brass making statements about having money to buy, I remain skeptical as to whether or not the Padres will make moves that are more than "marginal". I could see them getting Westbrook and Jed Lowrie and calling it quits. Would be nice if they could get Haren, Tejada, and Dejesus(assuming they believe he will be healthy enough); but, I just don't see it happening. Next, I will take a look at the teams that may be sellers and who the Padres might want from those teams.